Everyone takes a special path to the Tour de France, however all of the contenders for total victory in Good have now began their seasons. Jonas Vingegaard obtained off to a thunderous begin with wins at O Gran Camiño and Tirreno-Adriatico, whereas Tadej Pogačar delivered one more efficiency for the ages at Strade Bianche.
Elsewhere, Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglič met at Paris-Good, even when Visma-Lease A Bike issued an ominous warning about their energy in depth when Matteo Jorgenson carried off last total victory.
Making comparisons between riders lining out in numerous races by no means makes for an actual science, however clashes between the ‘Large 4’ of favourites might be rare between now and July.
With that in thoughts, we current the primary 2024 instalment of our rating of the favourites for Tour victory.
- Crew: Visma-Lease A Bike
- Tour Expertise: Winner in 2022 and 2023, runner-up in 2021
- 2024 outcomes: 1st & three stage wins at O Gran Camiño, 1st & two stage wins at Tirreno-Adriatico
The 2022 and 2023 Tour de France winner averted a showdown in opposition to Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič at Paris-Good, however he maybe regretted it after dominating Tirreno-Adriatico with a present of excellent early-season kind.
The Dane received each mountain phases within the Italian stage race, surging away from Juan Ayuso, Jai Hindley et al when he felt prefer it to win alone and acquire important time. He was clearly on one other degree.
“The season just isn’t solely concerning the Tour de France. It’s higher to attempt to do one thing now, win some races and win as a lot as potential,” Vingegaard recommended, clearly comfortable and comfortable after driving so effectively at Tirreno-Adriatico.
“I used to be in form final 12 months however for another issues, I didn’t carry out that effectively, however I at all times believed in myself and my kind. I believe my degree continues to be bettering and I hope I can enhance extra for the Tour de France. I do know I can peak in July.”
Vingegaard confirmed he’s unlikely to trip the Ardennes Classics. Itzulia Basque Nation is subsequent however and not using a spell at altitude beforehand.
“I’m trying ahead to racing these two guys too,” Vingegaard mentioned of Roglič and Evenepoel, with real enthusiasm and a way of a problem.
“It was a superb peloton right here, however they’re among the finest riders on the planet, so you must evaluate your self in opposition to them. To be the perfect rider on the planet, you must beat these guys.”
- Crew: UAE Crew Emirates
- Tour Expertise: Winner in 2020 and 2021, runner-up in 2022 and 2023
- 2024 outcomes: 1st at Strade Bianche
Tadej Pogačar has completely different ambitions from his Tour de France rivals and completely different traits as a rider, so he has a really completely different race programme from everybody else.
He’s focusing on the Giro d’Italia-Tour de France double and so is racing much less within the spring to remain contemporary and put together to be at his finest in Might after which once more in July.
The UAE Crew Emirates chief dominated Strade Bianche along with his 81 km solo assault however then skipped Tirreno-Adriatico, making Milan-San Remo his second race day of the season. The Volta a Catalunya would be the solely stage race of the spring, with Liège-Bastogne-Liège his final race coming after an altitude camp earlier than beginning the Giro d’Italia in Turin on Might 4.
“I’ve a very nice programme. I could be excited for every race,” Pogačar mentioned after his Strade Bianche win, confirming he has loved a productive pre-season and is already on nice kind and on observe for his Giro-Tour double try.
“I’ve obtained again all the arrogance that I perhaps misplaced after the crash final 12 months. It was a very nice winter for me, I had actually nice preparation and I’ve obtained affirmation that every one is nice.”
A one-day race isn’t any affirmation of Tour de France kind, however Pogačar seems happier than ever after a number of months at residence. He has a spring in his step and a smile on his face, a horrible signal for his rivals of what’s more likely to are available 2024.
- Crew: Soudal-QuickStep
- Tour Expertise: Debutant
- 2024 outcomes: 1st at Figueira Champions Classics, 1st & stage win at Volta ao Algarve, 2nd & stage win at Paris-Good
Remco Evenepoel began his 12 months in an identical method to Vingegaard and Pogačar by delivering a outstanding solo exhibition on the Figueira Champions Traditional. Later within the week, he ran via his scales on very acquainted terrain on the Volta ao Algave, profitable the race for the third time and within the normal method, by dominating the time trial and monitoring every part on the 2 summit finishes.
From the pleasant confines of Portugal, Evenepoel moved on to new floor in March. Previous to this 12 months, Evenepoel’s lone excursions throughout the Franco-Belgian border had come on the Chrono des Nations. Along with his Tour debut on the horizon, Evenepoel figured he may as effectively spend a bit extra time on French roads, and so he opted for Paris-Good over Tirreno-Adriatico or the Volta a Catalunya.
The Race to the Solar didn’t go solely to plan for Evenepoel, although it was removed from a catastrophe both, as he picked up second place total and a stage win in Good. His total problem was in the end undone by the tactical error that allowed Matteo Jorgenson out of his sight on stage 6, however it’s going to certainly be a nagging concern that considered one of Vingegaard’s Visma-Lease A Bike domestiques dealt so ably along with his onslaught on the ultimate stage.
“It’s not but the perfect Remco, however we’re getting there,” mentioned Evenepoel, who will measure himself in opposition to Vingegaard at Itzulia Basque Nation earlier than an anticipated head-to-head with Pogačar at Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
In contrast to his rivals, Evenepoel hasn’t but skilled at altitude in 2024, and he received’t achieve this till after the Ardennes. By his reckoning, there’s nonetheless ample margin for enchancment earlier than July. “We will already be very optimistic with the sensation that we now have with out altitude.”
- Crew: Bora-Hansgrohe
- Tour Expertise: Runner-up in 2020, fourth in 2018, three stage wins
- 2024 outcomes: tenth at Paris-Good
Primož Roglič stays in our prime 4 on pedigree reasonably than efficiency, provided that his tenth place at Paris-Good marked his worst end in a stage race of any description since he positioned fifteenth total on the similar occasion in 2021. That statistic doesn’t inform the total story, in fact, as Roglič crashed on the ultimate day of that version of Paris-Good whereas sporting the yellow jersey.
In actuality, then, this was Roglič’s most subdued outing in a stage race since he positioned twenty ninth total on the 2018 Tirreno-Adriatico. In his subsequent 27 stage race appearances, Roglič crashed out on 4 events (thrice at Grand Excursions), however he completed on the rostrum 20 occasions out of his 23 finishes. The exceptions got here on the 2018 Tour de France (4th), 2021 Paris-Good (fifteenth) and 2022 Itzulia Basque Nation (eighth).
What does this imply for Roglič’s prospects of Tour victory in July? Most likely lower than you suppose. His displaying right here was solely in line with the imaginative and prescient Bora-Hansgrohe efficiency supervisor Rolf Aldag laid out on the crew’s media day in January. In his Jumbo-Visma period, Roglič tended to win early and infrequently. At Bora, Aldag insisted, the Tour is the one win that issues, and his programme has been designed accordingly.
“The place we need to conflict with the ‘Large 4’ is on the Tour de France,” Aldag defined again then, with Roglič including that it could be a “bonus” if he obtained victories earlier than July. The Slovenian actually seemed a great distance wanting his normal March sharpness at Paris-Good, however maybe that’s simply all a part of the grand design for his contemporary strategy to the Tour.
Roglič by no means appeared in any undue problem throughout the week both, although as Philippa York identified, Bora-Hansgrohe’s tactical strategy to the crew time trial left a lot to be desired. For now, the 34-year-old seems content material to fly underneath the radar, however Itzulia Basque Nation will give a greater indication of his progress.
- Crew: UAE Crew Emirates
- Tour Expertise: Debutant
- 2024 outcomes: 2nd at Ruta del Sol, 1st at Faun Ardéche Traditional, 2nd at Faun Drôme Traditional, third at Trofeo Laigueglia, 2nd total & stage win at Tirreno-Adriatico
Juan Ayuso’s profession has at all times been on a quick observe and can speed up much more this summer season when he makes his Tour de France debut alongside Tadej Pogačar. He would be the Slovenian’s understudy, his apprentice and domestique. If Pogačar struggles throughout or after the Tour de France, then Ayuso might be able to step up and play an excellent larger position.
UAE Crew Emirates even have Adam Yates and João Almeida of their 2024 Tour de France lengthy listing, however Ayuso arguably presents extra potential. He’s nonetheless solely 21 however was third within the 2022 Vuelta a Espana and fourth final 12 months after a disrupted season.
He was unable to match Jonas Vingegaard on the Tirreno-Adriatico climbs however that solely gave him extra motivation for the 4 months earlier than this 12 months’s Tour de France.
“If you wish to be the perfect, you must beat the perfect. To have these alternatives to race in opposition to the perfect riders on the planet could be very good and motivating,” Ayuso advised Cyclingnews in Italy.
“I needed to get to know the Tour this 12 months, the crew thought it was a good suggestion, so that is the plan for 2024.
“The Tour is the largest dream cyclists can have, and I believe I moved one step ahead final 12 months. I’m a bit nearer now to the blokes which are on the prime. With the winter and throughout the season earlier than the Tour, I hope I can climb one other huge step and be prepared.
- Crew: UAE Crew Emirates
- Tour expertise: 7 appearances. third total in 2024, 4th total in 2016
- 2024 outcomes: 1st & stage win Tour of Oman. DNF UAE Tour
Yates’ podium end eventually 12 months’s Tour demonstrated that he’s greater than merely a luxurious domestique, however a possible auxiliary chief ought to mishap befall Pogačar.
The Briton loved a profession 12 months in his first season at UAE Crew Emirates, profitable the UAE Tour, Tour de Romandie and the Grand Prix de Montréal, and he began his 2024 marketing campaign on a equally buoyant notice by conquering Inexperienced Mountain to take total victory on the Tour of Oman.
The concussion sustained in a crash on the UAE Tour, nonetheless, has since arrested Yates’ progress. UAE Crew Emirates took Yates out of that race as quickly because the extent of his damage turned clear, and, sagely, in addition they stored him out of the line-up for Tirreno-Adriatico.
It’s not but sure when Yates will return to motion. With Pogačar main the road for UAE on the Volta a Catalunya, the Briton could be held again for Itzulia Basque Nation and even the Tour de Romandie.
- Crew: Jayco-AlUla
- Tour expertise: 6 appearances. 4th total 2024. Two stage wins in 2019
- 2024 outcomes: seventh at Tour Down Underneath, 1st & stage win AlUla Tour
Like his brother, Simon Yates picked up a win on the Arabian Peninsula in February with a sponsor-pleasing victory on the Alula Tour. As ever in Saudi Arabia, there wasn’t appreciable depth within the discipline, however profitable is a helpful behavior nonetheless, and Yates overcame UAE’s energy in numbers to assert the concluding stage and last total victory.
Having begun his marketing campaign early with seventh total on the Tour Down Underneath, Yates opted in opposition to racing Paris-Good or Tirreno-Adriatico. As an alternative, the Briton will trip each the Volta a Catalunya and Itzulia Basque, giving himself an opportunity to measure himself in opposition to all the ‘Large 4’ throughout the 2 occasions.
Vingegaard, Pogačar et al could also be on a special degree from Yates, however the 31-year-old stays a constant but unusually underrated performer. Count on him to be within the combine in late March and April.
- Crew: Visma-Lease A Bike
- Tour expertise: 4 appearances. twelfth total in 2023. Stage winner in 2021
- 2024 outcomes: sixth at Clásica Jaén, eighth at Volta ao Algarve, DNF at Strade Bianche
Victory eventually 12 months’s Vuelta a España has certainly modified Kuss’ ambitions for the summer season, nevertheless it doesn’t seem to have unduly altered his strategy to the early season.
Whereas others at Visma-Lease A Bike – mainly Vingegaard, Matteo Jorgenson and Jan Tratnik – have made quick begins to 2024, Kuss has been strong reasonably than spectacular in his first outings of the brand new marketing campaign.
Kuss was sixth on the Clásica Jaén and he seemed assured on the explosive summit finishes on the Volta ao Algarve, although a poor time trial restricted him to eighth total. He was reasonably much less spectacular in abandoning Strade Bianche per week later, however the gravel occasion was one thing like bonus territory for the American.
A more true indication of his kind will come when he races on acquainted terrain on the Volta a Catalunya. Within the absence of Vingegaard, it’s additionally a transparent alternative for Kuss to take the reins of management earlier than he hyperlinks up with the Dane for the primary time this season at subsequent month’s Itzulia Basque Nation.
The chasing pack
The ‘Large 4’ dominate pre-Tour dialogue, however the early weeks of the season have once more recommended that the highway to victory in July will once more run via two groups – Visma-Lease A Bike and UAE Crew Emirates. For many of the remainder of the peloton, there’s a hole to be bridged.
Carlos Rodríguez is nominally Ineos’ chief for the Tour after his fifth place end final 12 months, however the Spaniard has been nameless within the opening weeks of the season, putting thirty first at O Gran Camiño and twenty eighth at Paris-Good.
His teammate Egan Bernal has been rather more spectacular. After impressing for the Colombian nationwide crew on the Tour Colombia, he proceeded to position third total at O Gran Camiño and seventh at Paris-Good. It’s not clear if Bernal will even trip the Tour, far much less lead Ineos there, however it’s heartening to see his regular, upward trajectory two years on from his life-threatening coaching crash.
David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), however, might be feeling the stress after a disastrous Paris-Good. Twelve months in the past, the Frenchman raised his expectations for the Tour by putting second total in Good. This outing, his race unravelled when he crashed on the penultimate climb in the direction of Mont Brouilly, and he was a non-starter on the ultimate day. He’ll hope his season lastly ignites at Itzulia Basque Nation.
Richard Carapaz (EF Training-EasyPost) was mightily spectacular on the Tour Colombia, profitable the hardest stage to the Alto del Vino, however the Olympic champion has not but caught the attention in Europe, ending effectively off the tempo at O Gran Camiño and crashing out at Tirreno-Adriatico. He normally occasions issues excellent for Grand Excursions, thoughts, and he has designs on making an impression on the Ardennes Classics this Spring.
Enric Mas (Movistar) made his season debut at Tirreno-Adriatico, although he was nowhere to be seen when Vingegaard began operating via his repertoire later within the week. The Spaniard ended the race in twelfth total, however he’ll hope to be extra distinguished on the Volta a Catalunya.
Essentially the most spectacular member of the chasing pack, nonetheless, has been Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe). The Australian is about for a luxurious domestique position in Roglič’s service on the Tour, however his efficiency and third place total at Tirreno-Adriatico recommended a person able to step right into a management position if required. The 2022 Giro champion will head to Itzulia Basque Nation subsequent month with actual intent.
