With the 2024 Western States 100 proper across the nook, I wished to higher perceive who can be rounding the corners come race day. In case you’re something like me, this can be a bucket record race in your calendar, however the prospect of getting in is so distant that it’s extra of an idea than a practical chance for therefore many people at this level.
Simply how tough is it to get into this occasion? What’s the finest technique for getting in? Will I be capable to run this occasion earlier than my physique provides out from overuse? On this article, I dive into the numbers in an try to shed some mild on these questions.
Kuni Yamagata ending the 2021 Western States 100 throughout the Golden Hour earlier than the cutoff, as photographed in “Second Dawn,” a e book concerning the occasion’s historical past by John Trent. Photograph: Gary Wang
Breakdown of the 2024 Western States 100 Entrants
Western States is the oldest 100-mile race on the planet and attracts ultrarunners from across the globe to participate within the historic occasion. (See my earlier article for what this journey appears like.) Entry into this race has continued to develop in demand yr over yr, with solely a tiny fraction of all candidates gaining entry.
When the 2024 Western States kicks off in a number of days, 375 people will toe the road. Here’s a breakdown of how these 375 people gained entry into the occasion.
2024 Western States 100 Entrants Breakdown
Supply: https://www.wser.org/automatics/
We primarily have three foremost methods to get into the occasion:
- Develop into very concerned with the occasion, reminiscent of by being a board member or by volunteering at an support station for a few years;
- Be actually, actually quick; or
- Acquire entry by way of the race lottery.
With 72% (270) of individuals getting in by way of the lottery, that is the most typical approach to get in. That doesn’t, nevertheless, imply that the percentages are in your favor of getting in. Since choices 1 and a couple of are restricted to roughly 100 individuals, whereas the lottery this yr had 9,388 individuals, I can be focusing this text on the third group.
Western States is sort of clear with their lottery system — they don’t do an incredible job of selecting me — and gives an in depth breakdown of lottery statistics yearly. Right here you’ll be able to see the expansion of candidates over time and what number of tickets they’ve accrued through the years. The variety of tickets an entrant has is calculated by 2^(n-1) the place n is the variety of years getting into the lottery with out gaining entry.
The Progress of Western States 100 Candidates From 200o to 2024
Notice: There have been no lotteries for the 2009 and 2021 races as in every occasion entrants had been rolled over from the race being canceled the earlier yr. Supply: https://www.wser.org/2023/11/30/2024-lottery-statistics/
Due to this logarithmically scaled ticket system that rewards entrants who’ve been making an attempt for a few years, the 9,388 individuals truly interprets to 53,966 whole tickets. Western States runs Monte Carlo simulations — a statistics approach used to foretell outcomes of an unsure occasion — to indicate the anticipated chance of an entrant entering into the occasion given a sure ticket quantity.
The chart under particulars your odds of getting in for 2024. With 1 ticket, your likelihood is lower than 1% and people possibilities solely enhance to above 50% with 128 tickets, which suggests 8 years of getting into the lottery and never being chosen.
Primarily based on Ticket Numbers, the Odds of Getting Into the 2024 Western States 100
Supplied these dismal possibilities, I wished to grasp how lengthy it might take a mean runner reminiscent of myself to get into Western States. For the sake of this calculation, I assumed an applicant accomplished a qualification race yearly. Given the above odds and bearing in mind being chosen in a earlier yr, the anticipated variety of years to get into Western States is 6.79 years.
Notice that the above doesn’t account for extra individuals getting into the lottery over time, which decreases one’s odds additional. If we have a look at latest traits and apply a decay issue of 0.75 to replicate the change from the 2023 to the 2024 lottery, the anticipated variety of years turns into 8.3 years.
Perseverance is the important thing to being chosen for this race. Eight years is a very long time, however when you proceed to stack up these qualifiers, you’ll ultimately get in. By this level, in case your physique continues to be cooperating, you may be fairly skilled in ultra-distance occasions and in a superb place to take advantage of the 100 miles.
A key half to this multi-year plan is to proceed to finish Western States qualifiers. Within the subsequent part, I break down the qualifying races and discover the panorama of those occasions.
Western States 100 Qualifying Races and Their Attributes
Western States qualifiers are “based mostly solely on the scale of the race” with giant and established races getting precedence, and the one restriction being that races shorter than 100 miles should have a minimum of 8,202 ft (2,500 meters) of elevation achieve. The race group reiterates its method is “based mostly solely on the variety of runners and never course issue.”
This method differs from that of different races, such because the Hardrock 100, the place many elements are considered for qualifying races. With Hardrock’s cumulative vertical achieve of 33,000 ft and a mean elevation of 11,000 ft, its board has set stricter standards for its qualifying races. They have a look at information about race traits reminiscent of excessive elevation, lengthy steep climbs, extreme climate, and uncovered terrain to make sure entrants are ready to securely full the Hardrock 100.
Eager about this issue standards bought me within the variety of races included within the Western States qualifiers. As a result of there isn’t any issue standards, some races are inherently simpler qualifiers. On the finish of the day, every race is as tough as you select to make it and also you see runners push themselves to the brink from 100 meters to 100 miles. What I wish to concentrate on on this part are the elements that contribute to an athlete finishing a race within the requisite qualifying time for a lottery ticket. Which races are most probably to safe the typical runner a qualifier?
Andre Blumberg ending the 2013 Western States 100, alongside his spouse and crew, Patchanida Pongsubkarun. Photograph: Patchanida Pongsubkarun
Dataset
On this part, I have a look at all Western States qualifier races within the U.S. and Canada. The info is pulled from every race’s gpx information.
Utilizing a primary scatter plot view, I mapped the space and elevation of Western States qualifiers for 2024:
Distance Versus Vertical Acquire within the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifiers
A number of issues bounce out about this chart. First, now we have our outliers up and to the suitable, with 4 200-mile or longer races. These 200-mile races are out of the scope of this text — and don’t get me began on 300-mile races. For sure, when you full considered one of these races, you’re a monster and never in search of the ‘simple’ lottery entry into Western States.
Eradicating these outliers, we will get a greater view of the 100-kilometer and 100-mile distances that I concentrate on for the remainder of this part.
On this graph, we see two foremost clusters on the x-axis across the 100k and 100-mile distances, with appreciable variation within the vertical achieve (y-axis) for comparable distance occasions. For 100-mile occasions, this spans from the Hennepin Hundred Mile, which good points lower than 1,000 vertical ft to the Hardrock 100, which boasts over 33,000 ft of climbing.
This variation is big. A mountainous 100-mile course at elevation is a totally completely different race than a flat occasion of the identical distance at sea degree. Western States falls close to the center of the vertical achieve distribution for 100-mile occasions with round 18,000 ft of vertical achieve.
Vertical achieve is a crucial issue, however what goes up should ultimately come down — except you’re the Cocodona 250 Mile, you then simply hold going up. Taking a look at distance and web achieve, we will see a barely completely different story.
Distance Versus Internet Acquire within the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifiers
Most programs are near zero web achieve, being run on loops or beginning and ending in comparable areas. The California programs take the crown for web downhill, with Western States itself having essentially the most web downhill, edging out the Angels Crest 100 Mile and the Canyons 100 Mile.
The space together with vertical achieve and web achieve are essential elements when analyzing how tough a qualifying race is. One other vital issue to think about when securing a qualifier is the cutoff time. Taking a look at distance versus cutoff time, we see a detailed correlation with variation as a result of different issue elements of the course.
Distance Versus Cutoff Time within the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifiers
Most 100k cutoffs fall within the 17- to 22-hour vary, whereas most 100 milers are between 30 and 36 hours.
Distance and elevation achieve are the 2 most generally out there information factors round races and provides us a top level view of the cutoff customary in extremely races. Eager about the Hardrock 100’s qualifier necessities, I wished to gather information round some extra traits like elevation and lengthy, steep climbs to color a extra detailed image of those races.
I pulled this data and compiled a dataset for all races from their gpx information. The extra variables I checked out moreover distance and ascent had been common elevation, most elevation, sustained climbs of over 2,000 ft, and sustained climbs of over 3,000 ft. Initially, I wished an outline of which variables had been most carefully tied to course cutoff occasions. By plotting a heatmap of correlation between variables, we will see which variables are carefully associated to different variables.
The above plot could be very colourful and enjoyable, however what does it actually inform us? The row I’m most inquisitive about is how sure variables are correlated with cutoff time.
Zooming in on this backside row we see that distance is most correlated with cutoff time — no shock there — whereas the variables subsequent most carefully correlated to cutoff occasions are vertical change and sustained climbs, which refers back to the variety of sustained climbs of greater than 2,000 and three,000 vertical ft, suggesting a mountainous course.
Predicted Occasions for Ultramarathons In comparison with Their Cutoffs
Contemplating these variables, I used to be curious to see if we might decide which races are theoretically essentially the most cheap to finish inside the cutoff time. We’re, in fact, restricted by information and the next evaluation doesn’t seize the numerous nuances of an extremely race. Regardless, I hope you discover the next evaluation fascinating by way of fascinated with the relation between race options and cutoff time.
The group celebrates after Gunhild Swanson completed the 2015 Western States 100 with six seconds to spare. Photograph: Ted Knudsen
Taking the earlier scatter plots completely different options, I wished to suit a regression mannequin to view the anticipated cutoff time. Right here we will see the expected line for cutoff time based mostly off essentially the most carefully correlated function, distance.
Regression Fashions Present Anticipated Cutoff Occasions for the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifiers
Taking out the 48-hour cutoff races outliers of the Hardrock 100, Fats Canine 120 Mile, and Merciless Jewel 100 Mile, we will higher examine races with comparable cutoff occasions within the scatter plot under.
Including in additional variables we will proceed to enhance the accuracy of the mannequin as we account for extra options of the race.
After accounting for the entire variables collected we will graph a residual plot exhibiting how a lot a race’s cutoff time deviates from what can be anticipated based mostly on its options.
A Residual Plot Displaying How A lot the 2024 Western States 100 Qualifier Races’ Cutoff Occasions Deviate from Anticipated
The above graph is fascinating as a result of it permits us to have a look at the information factors with the most important residual. These are the races which have a decrease predicted cutoff time than the precise cutoff time, i.e., a beneficiant relative cutoff time. In case you are chasing cutoffs, a change of an hour or two may very well be the distinction between finishing the race and timing out.
In keeping with this mannequin, the races with the most important residuals (most beneficiant cutoffs) throughout 100k and 100-mile distances are the Dinosaur Valley 100k, the Misplaced Soul 100k, the Extremely-Path Harricana 125k, the Quebec Mega Path 100 Mile, the Superior 100 Mile, and the Zion 100 Mile. To reiterate, these aren’t the best races, reasonably these with essentially the most beneficiant cutoffs based mostly on the options accounted for on this mannequin.
I might have liked to spend extra time on this space to construct out a extra full mannequin round ultramarathon course issue (keep tuned for this sooner or later), however, alas, cutoffs, this time of the editorial selection! Onto the takeaways.
Takeaways
- There are greater than 200 qualifying races for Western States to select from. When contemplating a qualifying race, it is very important be aware that races differ considerably in distance, elevation, and quite a lot of different methods.
- In case you are seeking to get a Western States qualifier, it is very important think about the cutoff time. A race could seem ‘simpler’ on paper, however might need a much less beneficiant cutoff time, thereby making it tough to finish inside the time constraint.
For these of you racing Western States this yr, better of luck and take a second to understand what bought you to this second — particularly these of you who bought in with one lottery ticket!
Name for Feedback
- I really like information, however acknowledge it doesn’t inform the complete story. What different elements do you assume contribute essentially the most to races being extra ‘tough?’
- For the races I recognized as having essentially the most beneficiant cutoffs, are there any that you just disagree with based mostly on different elements that weren’t included within the mannequin?
- Are there any races you assume are ‘simpler’ qualifiers?
Ladies’s champion Ruth Croft on the Rucky Chucky river crossing at mile 78 of the 2022 Western States 100. Photograph: iRunFar/Bryon Powell
